b.cognosco

[...] a rapidly evolving set of conceptual and computing tools allow mathematicians, engineers and insurance executives to assess the risk of what are euphemistically known as low-probability, high-consequence events.

The field, known in professional jargon as probabilistic risk assessment, helps companies and government agencies decide whether they are prepared to take the chances involved.

In 1995, these tools helped a NASA consultant estimate the risk of a catastrophic space shuttle failure at 1 in 145, or about 0.7 percent, for each mission. NASA accepted that risk. Similar methods are used to estimate the health risks at toxic-waste sites, to secure nuclear laboratories, weapon stockpiles and power plants, and to determine the safety and reliability of planes and cars. They help determine home insurance rates for tens of millions of people in the United States, Europe and Japan. And now some of the techniques are being used to analyze the chances of terrorist attack. [...] via NYT via [OnDecidingBetter News]