b.cognosco
Where leaping to conclusions is my primary form of forward motion.
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Space Flight Not Routine
On Negotiating Better
Getting to Space
War On Drugs
File Trading Manifesto
Space Shuttle Lost Over Texas
New EC Anti-Piracy Proposal
Monday, February 3, 2003
Experts Not Always Right
Today's Wall Street Journal article (subscription required) on the future of manned space flight quotes a number of "experts" -- not all of whom are right.
[...] "Any specific mission you can identify to do in space, you can design and build an unmanned space craft to do it more effectively, more economically and more safely," said Alex Roland, a professor of history at Duke University and for eight years a historian at NASA. Manned space flights are more about capturing the public's imagination than science, he said. "It's circus, it's just pure circus." [...] [WSJ Online]
By this philosophy we don't actually need doctors, history professors, or even steering wheels in cars. Let's just have machines do it all. It was a dumb thing to say.
Sunday, February 2, 2003
Space Flight Not Routine
I have a lot of respect for some of the folks who are analyzing this disaster, but I don't know how anyone could convince themselves that traveling at 17,500mph is routine, or that entering the earth's atmosphere at 12,000mph in a 30-year-old craft isn't risky as hell. We may be a century away from making space travel as safe as air travel, if ever. The real questions become, "Is our approach to space inherently riskier than necessary?" and "Given the approch we've chosen, have we ignored reasonable precautions?"
On the Space Shuttle crash....Sunday: Space Flight Not Routine. The most sensible single article on the Columbia loss that I've read appeared in today's New York Times. In this article, the risks of space flight are dissected. As my colleague Jeff Carlson noted , we have to hope the astronauts were given as much insight into the chance of failure and other risks as were realistic. Elsewhere on the Net, I've seen quotes from Richard Feynman appear from his conclusions after the Challenger disaster that have similar conclusions, but this heartfelt statement from a NASA official sums it up best: Capt. Bill Readdy, associate administrator for space flight and a former astronaut, said at a news conference yesterday afternoon: "Today was a very stark reminder that this is a very risky endeavor, pushing back the frontiers in outer space. And after 113 flights, unfortunately, people have a tendency to look at it as something that is more or less routine. Well I can assure you it is not ... [GlennLog] [Ye Olde Phart]
On Negotiating Better
An analysis of two negotiating strategies -- "Getting to Yes", and "Start with No" -- which take opposite approaches and actually have two very different goals. James Vornov takes a personal look at the two paths to reaching agreement, and points out that "Win-Win" just may not be. James places the analysis in a context that will feel familiar to most business executives.
[...] The best agreement is the one that maximizes utility or value for all parties involved. It will involve give and take and tradeoffs to solve the common problem, but there will be some optimal solution.Thus, the principle of "Getting to Yes" or "Think Win-Win" yields optimal solutions.
Or does it?
It was Jimmy Carter who made me uneasy with "Getting to Yes". It was clear to me that he had been trained by this school. Sometimes I felt the approach would yield agreements that should never be made. After all, if one side is, in truth, right and one is, in truth, wrong, then a win-win agreement is wrong. [...] [On Deciding...Better]
Terry Frazier at 12:13 PM
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Getting to Space
Amid the over-analysis, finger-pointing, self-flagellation, mourning, and reexaminations happening post-Columbia, I don't see anyone actually asking the right, tough question -- is this really the right way to get to space? Columbia was the oldest of the shuttles. Any malfunction in the controls in the flight regime can get her into an unrecoverable attitude, which is probably what happened.Let us honor the dead, then understand how we should be Getting to Space:
Almighty Ruler of the all,
Whose Power extends to great and small,
Who guides the stars with steadfast law,
Whose least creation fills with awe,
O grant thy mercy and thy grace,
To those who venture into space.
-- Robert Heinlein, the Prayer for Travelers
Saturday, February 1, 2003
War On Drugs
America's three most important domestic issues today do not include abortion, faith-based initiatives, prescription drug prices, tax cuts, corporate reform, social security, the stock market, affirmative action, or any other news-driven sound bite topic. The three most important domestic issues are:- the Homeland Security Act
- the War on Drugs
- the Copyright Cabal
Why are these so important? Because they affect every American without regard to race, gender, religion, or status. Each is an attempt to criminalize, a priori, huge segments of the population. Each is a legislative fiat aimed squarely at individual freedom. Each has been accepted by large portions of the population as right and good despite the abuses that are already occurring. And each is a wholesale transferring rights from legal citizens to a handful of unelected bureaucrats.
Recently a US District Judge attacked one of these issues. For once I agree with the judiciary.
Denver U.S. District Judge John Kane Jr., who has been speaking and writing against the nation's drug policy for about five years, won a standing ovation from a packed City Club luncheon at the Brown Palace Hotel."I don't favor drugs at all," Kane said. [...]
"Our national drug policy is inconsistent with the nature of justice, abusive of the nature of authority, and wholly ignorant of the compelling force of forgiveness," he said. "I suggest that federal drug laws be severely cut back." [...]
File Trading Manifesto
The best summation yet of the current case against the Copyright Cabal, provided by one of their own -- Artist House Records President John Snyder, and his son Ben. I'm adding this piece to my Citizen's Copyright Information Kit, a collection of the articulate, impassioned, and well reasoned arguments being made against the usurious and demeaning tactics of the RIAA and MPAA. I plan to eventually create hard-copy output of all the pieces (thereby creating something even a politician can read), organize them into a proper presentation folder, and hand deliver them to the local office of each of my representatives.Snyder quotes lots of third-party statistics, summarizes many of the earlier pieces such as Tim O'Reilly's essay on piracy, the EFF article on unintended consequences, and the Janis Ian interview. He also cites, quotes, and links to numerous other resources. Powerful stuff.
"Embrace file-sharing, or die". This from Artist House Records' President, John Snyder, and his son Ben, in response to the National Association of Recording Artists [algorhythm]
Space Shuttle Lost Over Texas
I remember vividly the 1986 loss of Challenger -- it's the only event in my life that is etched as clearly as the fall of the World Trade Center. Ironically, I was driving east on Hwy 183 in Irving, TX when it occurred.This is a tragedy, but not very likely a terrorist attack. Far more likely is that this is the result of a misguided, misdirected space program that has been sending people into space in the equivalent of a 30-year-old school bus. The space shuttles were all built in the 1970s, with technology from the 1960s. They are outdated, outmoded, decrepit, and worn out. It costs billions to refurbish them every time they're used.
It's charming to watch Han Solo or Captain Malcolm Reynolds fly around in interplanetary craft held together with bailing wire. But that's entertainment. It's entirely another matter to be sending our own people off in such things. Yet that's what we do, every time we launch a space shuttle.
I don't want to see the space program shut down. We need the space program. But we need one that isn't technologically out paced by Nintendo. A lot of smart people have given NASA plans, concepts, and road maps over the years. None have been used. How many more must die before we get it together and stop trying to fly school buses?
New EC Anti-Piracy Proposal
New EC anti-piracy directive starts to recognize consumer rights. After failing to gain much support among EU nations, the commission submitted a new draft that focuses on commercial and large-scale piracy, not legitimate owners engaged in personal activities.
[...] The proposed directive, meant to harmonize intellectual property right enforcement laws in the 15-nation European Union (EU), aims to strike "a fair balance" between interests of right holders and the opportunities the Internet offers to consumers, according to Commission documents accompanying the draft.No tougher sanctions are introduced against individuals who download tracks for noncommercial use. Criminal sanctions only apply when copyright infringement is carried out intentionally and for commercial purposes, the Commission said. [...]
That the proposal has infuriated the Copyright Cabal is encouraging.
[...] The industry in a statement issued jointly by 10 organizations, including the Business Software Alliance (BSA), International Federation of the Phonographic Industry (IFPI) and Motion Picture Association (MPA), blasted the proposal, calling it "inadequate" and "unambitious." [...]
Europe rarely leads the US in intelligent technology law. Maybe this is one time they will. We certainly need some common sense interjected into this argument.
Slashdot | Your Rights Online - Finland Drops EUCD For Now.replicant_deckard writes "Electronic Frontier Finland just got a huge legal victory. They report the local DMCA-copy (based on EU copyright directive) was dropped today at the parliament after heavy criticism. So far just two EU nations have accepted the innovation threatening law. Campaigns go on in different European states. They need your support!" cabra771 writes "The European Commission has put up a new proposal dealing with online music piracy that appears to have slightly upset a few people." [Privacy Digest]
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