b.cognosco
Where leaping to conclusions is my primary form of forward motion.
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Scan LInes
Assessing the Bust
Assessing the Patent System
FCC Steps Up Speech Regulation
DOJ Seizes (non)Piracy Site
threedegrees Terms of Use
Friday, February 28, 2003
Ryze Networking
This week I had two very interesting brainstorming sessions thanks to the Ryze community. First, Gordana Bischoff, a strategic consultant in Cape Town, South Africa spent an hour with me discussing value creation in the SMB community. Today I spent 45 minutes with Stuart Henshall, a strategic consultant in the Bay area, discussing how new collaborative technologies, DigitalID, and social networking tools are inverting the relationships between businesses and customers.The first conversation took place wholly on the computer, using a combination of Yahoo! VoiceChat and IM with MindManager conferencing. The second took place via traditional POTS. The first linked me to the other side of the world, the second to the other side of the country. But there was a pattern and a consistency to the conversations.
I met both Gordana and Stuart through Ryze, and they are emblematic of the kinds of connections the network can help you make if you put some effort into it. Both are high-level thinkers with an ability to crystallize ideas and articulate them clearly. Brainstorming with such people is always a joy -- they bring a new level of clarity and energy to my own thinking.
Both are experienced, with a wide range of skills, ideas, and connections that give them unique and valuable perspectives. But most importantly, both are willing to share their ideas openly with people like me -- riffing on the changes we see around us, thinking about new pathways for navigatng the chaos, and building new connections. Both are people who want to make a difference and I'm grateful they chose to spend some of their time with me.
For what it's worth, I had a great time working with both of you. I hope we can do it again. And thanks to Ryze for creating the network by which I could meet these two people and, hopefully, many more like them.
Scan LInes
What does it mean when thousands of little horizontal scan lines begin showing up on your monitor screen, making it look like ATT Cablevision?Assessing the Bust
In thinking about how to capitalize on the use of simpler, less expensive collaboration and communication tools in business I've been looking for patterns in the business environment that might clue me as to how businesses will consider and act on such tools, and what businesses will be open to them. I'm most interested in the small and medium business (SMB) environment, but many patterns that emerge at the enterprise level eventually have a significant impact on the SMB space, so watching the enterprise is important, as well.In the Winter 2003 issue of Leader to Leader noted innovation and strategy consultant Gary Hamel discusses just how seriously over the technology boom is, and how it is not going to be repeated.
Hamel's insights are applicable for anyone in the technology business if they are planning a future in the enterprise. Two key observations:
- IT spending growth is finished -- In 1990 IT spending averaged 19 percent of capital budgets. In 2000 IT spending averaged 59 percent of budgets -- a 300 percent increase. IT budgets will not triple again to consume more than 100 percent of capital budgets.
- Sales for consolidating systems and cost cutting are finished -- In 1990 total M&A activity ran $500 million per year. By 2000 M&A ran $3.5 trillion per year. Had the M&A rate in 2000 continued there would have been only one company left in the US by the year 2007.
According to Hamel, this last point has put 40,000 investment bankers in the unemployment line in the US, and some 25,000 in Europe. Things are never again going to be as they were in the aberration '90s. The enterprise market was the "golden IT goose" for more than a decade, but, according to Hamel, the goose is dead. Not on life support, but dead. I expect we will see increasing emphasis on the SMB market from major vendors as they struggle to keep sales up. I also expect we'll see increasing interest in small-scale, flexible solutions for improving work flow, efficiency, and collaboration.
As enterprise budgets and personnel are slashed and large-scale deployments evaluated more critically than ever, many of the old methods of work simply fail. Opportunities arise for radically improving processes, finding better control systems, and vastly improving the way those who remain can work. When this is combined with the new, affordable tools for networking, collaboration, and sharing it means that, for the first time, the enterprise may actually be at a serious competitive disadvantage to the SMB player.
Despite the dreadful economy and the impending doom of war, this is an incredible time to be in the marketplace. The necessary ideas, technologies, and cultural shifts required to re-make the workplace arebeginning to converge. The SMB market is where a lot of this is going to happen, and for the first time in 100 years the advantage of scale that has empowered the multi-national corporation may actually become a weight.
By no means am I suggesting the Global 2000 is going to fail tomorrow, but these are interesting times for being in business, for thinking about how to compete, and reaching for what's possible. Interesting times, indeed.
Assessing the Patent System
Larry Lessig assesses the ills of the US patent system in his Financial Times editorial, and makes a case for substantial reform. Mr. Epstein's rebuttal is to argue that innovative products are still emerging from the system and all is (relatively) well. Offered a choice I will side with Lessig but admit that Epstein's view is interesting.Epstein, of course, is a lawyer first and as such is a natural defendant of a system that can provide so much money to his colleagues. The legal fees expended in developing, assessing, fighting, and defending massive, multi-layered, overlapping, redundant, concentric, strategically-engineered patent portfolios is astounding -- these things are, quite literally, masterworks of obfuscation. So it is not as if Epstein has an unbiased view of the proceedings.
What Lessig does, but Epstein doesn't bother with, is to admit the patent system has been considerably altered in the past 10 years and to project the long-term effects of those changes. A recent editorial in the Wall Street Journal (I can't find it at the moment) made much the same argument in favor of the DMCA -- to paraphrase, since the patient (our ability to innovate) isn't dead yet, the disease (our intellectual property system) must be just fine.
If this diagnostic practice were acceptable in medicine every doctor would be a coroner. It does not take a rocket scientist to realize that
a) Patents are useful
b) A patent system run amok is more than just a nuisance
Waiting until we have experienced serious damage to our economy and our global competitiveness before we re-examine recent changes to patent law is a mistake. There are already clearly visible patterns that can clue us to what will happen in the next few years. Lessig is watching these patterns. I wonder what the other lawyers are watching?
Whom do you trust to assess the current state of our patent law system?.Larry Lessig has actually written code, and has a very keen grasp of all of the broad contours of intellectual property law. He says the current patent law system is in need of an overhaul. On the other hand, Richard Epstein has a firm grasp of the law, but admits he has no technical skills. Epstein offers this sidenote in his rebuttal of Lessig argument:
"I claim no technical expertise in the software that operates under the hood of my computer. But for these purposes ignorance is a kind of bliss, for it is quite evident as I sit working away on my OS X by Apple that it represents a major advance in convenience, versatility and power that could not have taken place if strong intellectual property rights had Balkanised the intellectual universe."
Okay, admittedly, you don't need to be an engineer to understand the need for a system that rewards innovation (i.e. a patent law system). But you don't need to be a big shot intellectual property lawyer to know that a system that awards patents on swings and recognizes "business method" patents is in need of overhaul, and not simply tweaking, as Epstein suggests. [...] [Ernie the Attorney]
Thursday, February 27, 2003
FCC Steps Up Speech Regulation
The American Liberty Foundation, a privately funded Libertarian organization, is reporting that the FCC is attempting to regulate its anti-war radio advertisements and prevent certain advertisements from being aired. According to a recent American Liberty e-mail:
[...] One of our ADS WILL AIR on KKDV 95.7 FM in San Francisco four times on Friday and three times each on Saturday and Sunday. Weve zipped them a check.Just moments ago, I was told the ads can air only with a letter signed by a corporate officer, standing by the claims of the spot. As you know, thats no problem weve documented everything pretty well at our website, http://www.TruthAboutWar.org
But what provoked this letter?
Im still awaiting more details, but heres what I understand as of right now. It seems the FCC is clamping down on anti-war outreach attempting to scare radio stations from selling ads to organizations like ours. [...]
I've never heard an American Liberty Foundation radio ad, and I know some stations have refused to air them. The Foundation claims to have accepted the decision of such stations as well within their rights and moved on. But I am not aware of the FCC having previously stepped in to mandate the subject matter of political ads. If others have pointers to such actions I'd like to know.
DOJ Seizes (non)Piracy Site
This article has some disturbing overtones. Note that the convicted felon didn't engage in piracy, didn't sell pirated goods, didn't operate a trading network. He sold chips. Yet the entire case, as related in the press release, and the (new) web site all repeatedly refer to piracy crime.How soon will it be before we can't alter any electronic device? How long before General Motors has after market manufacturers of automotive performance chips rounded up and jailed? How soon will the FCC be handing out $500,000 fines for truckers who boost their CB radio output? How long before you have to register your TiVo with the government?
[...]"Piracy is not a game or a hobby, it is a crime," said Paul McNulty. "This case is another example of our dedication to enforcing the intellectual property laws of this nation online. Whether you are engaged in conduct like David Rocci or you are purchasing mod chips to play pirated games, you should stop," said McNulty. "As David Rocci and others have learned recently, the consequences of copyright infringement are very real." [...]
Reasonable people can disagree on the veracity of intellectual property laws in this nation. But there can be little disagreement that the last few years have seen these laws extended well beyond what anyone could have imagined a decade ago. Seemingly arbitrary and capricious enforcement has not helped. And the sort of flag-waving propaganda exhibited by the DOJ at the ISONews sites smacks of something just a little shy of "Truth, Justice, and the American Way."
US government seizes news Web siteIn a move that has alarmed free speech advocates, the U.S. Justice Department this week seized a news Web site containing information on pirated software and hardware, turning it into a government-run site containing warnings about software piracy and links to antipiracy investigations. [...] [InfoWorld: Top News]
Tuesday, February 25, 2003
threedegrees Terms of Use
How can there be any legal substance to a contract that states it can be changed at any time without notice? No one can actually agree to anything that hasn't been disclosed. If I tried to take a contract like that to court I'd get laughed out. And the little "Better listen. I hear they have good lawyers!" at the bottom of the page is so cute. My teenagers and I will be having a little talk about the Microsoft legalese.
ACCEPTANCE OF TERMS.The services that Microsoft provides or makes available to you via the 3° web site are subject to the following Terms of Use ("TOU"). Microsoft reserves the right to update the TOU at any time without notice to you. The most current version of the TOU can be reviewed by clicking on the "Terms of Use" hypertext link located at the bottom of our Web pages.
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